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dewi

Full Member
May 26, 2015
2,647
12
Cheshire
"When" it's perfected? Amazon is already making home deliveries with drones.

Yep and we've already got automated lorries being tested on the motorway network up here. The Google car has done thousands of miles, and the Tesla is already on the road with it's auto-mode... 10 to 15 years and we probably won't have taxi drivers and delivery drivers... that is a few million jobs down the pan and there are only so many coffee baristas needed or call centre workers for that matter.
 

dewi

Full Member
May 26, 2015
2,647
12
Cheshire
Interesting ideas. I recall the same fear for computerisation and robotisation about 30 years ago.
Did not happen, will not happen.
What is worse is the movement of jobs to low wage countries . That is a real problem today.

You write that this new system is easier to admin. Do you really think the byreaucrats will fire themselves only they are not needed?
I do not think so. They will just create new tasks to keep their jobs.

Take DVLA. Have they scaled down since computerisation?

You're missing the point. This isn't about computerisation, it is about automation. A driveless car is exactly that, a car without a driver. Apply that to a taxi and how many thousand jobs go?

Just because the fears of the past were unjustified doesn't mean that the reality of a reduced labour market isn't coming. Besides, you're not comparing like for like. 30 years ago milk was delivered to the doorstep and the telephone box was the closest you'd get to a mobile telephone. Arguably millions of jobs have already been replaced by machines, but with the up and coming advances in AI, coupled with Moore's law and bearing in mind that the world's population is increasing at a staggering rate, jobs will be reduced by their millions and what is their to replace them?

As for the layers of bureaucracy, it is unsustainable. If a cheaper way to administer something is found, it will be done. You're confusing the political elite with the civil service. The civil service don't decide themselves whether their jobs are still relevant.

Interesting you should use the DVLA as an example. Considering the vast increase in the number of vehicles on the road, is there any direct correlation to the increase in staffing levels at the DVLA? Or has ANPR removed the need for more staff to name just one of the DVLAs computerised tools? Is there any need to check tax discs any more? Or print them for that matter? What job is the guy who used to look at the screen or operate the printing press doing now?
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
Dewi, in the past it was about computerization and robotisation, today it is automation. Same fear.


We lose jobs in one field, and gain in another field. This has been going on since the start of civilisations.

You can not assume that there will not be new technologies or areas emerging that will create jobs.


For example we need more and more people in the health and care sektor. We live longer, get more diseases and problems that are age related, and also spend more time in old peoples homes and similar.

The son of the truck driver will not drive a truck, but can work in a home for old people, if you understand what I mean with this example.

Sweden has the highest number of civil servants per capita in the world. Paid for the poor souls that work and pay taxes there. No government has been able or willing to change that.

DVLA could be run by a handful of people. We have technology today so the Computers and computer guided machines could do 99.99% the work.
But still thousands are still employed and do this.

Most job losses are not done by firing somebody, but by not employing people when they quit for another job or retire.

The guy that did not get a job at DVLA when somebody retired is now working with something else.
If this was not so we would have a massive increase of unemployed people, but we do not.

UK has had an unemployment rate of around 10% in the mid 80s, now about 5 % i think. It is going sharply down.
Despite the huge influx of Eastern European labour. Do you temrmber the scaremongering in UK when Schengen came into effect? I do.
 
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Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
I used to use taxis a lot when I travelled. I have not used a taxi for two years. I take Über.
In Miami we used to see vertable hordes of taxis. When I went there 3 weeks ago, hardly any.
Are these guys unemployed? I do not think do. They work, but not as taxi drivers.
 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
......For example we need more and more people in the health and care sektor. We live longer, get more diseases and problems that are age related, and also spend more time in old peoples homes and similar........

Do you really believe that can't be automated?
 

dewi

Full Member
May 26, 2015
2,647
12
Cheshire
Dewi, in the past it was about computerization and robotisation, today it is automation. Same fear.


We lose jobs in one field, and gain in another field. This has been going on since the start of civilisations.

You can not assume that there will not be new technologies or areas emerging that will create jobs.


For example we need more and more people in the health and care sektor. We live longer, get more diseases and problems that are age related, and also spend more time in old peoples homes and similar.

The son of the truck driver will not drive a truck, but can work in a home for old people, if you understand what I mean with this example.

Sweden has the highest number of civil servants per capita in the world. Paid for the poor souls that work and pay taxes there. No government has been able or willing to change that.

DVLA could be run by a handful of people. We have technology today so the Computers and computer guided machines could do 99.99% the work.
But still thousands are still employed and do this.

Most job losses are not done by firing somebody, but by not employing people when they quit for another job or retire.

The guy that did not get a job at DVLA when somebody retired is now working with something else.
If this was not so we would have a massive increase of unemployed people, but we do not.

UK has had an unemployment rate of around 10% in the mid 80s, now about 5 % i think. It is going sharply down.
Despite the huge influx of Eastern European labour. Do you temrmber the scaremongering in UK when Schengen came into effect? I do.

Automation isn't the same as computers and robots. You're comparing apples and housebricks. Computers and robots are tools, clever tools, but they're ultimately tools that require human input. Automation requires no human input. It's automatic. I repeat, the driverless car has no driver, there is no human input. And those Uber cars... how are they any different to a taxi when you boil it down to the basics. You're paying a human to drive you to a location. Driverless cars will remove the driver.

As for drivers all becoming care workers... have you any idea how many driving jobs there are in the UK? Let alone the rest of the world. They can't all become care workers, no matter how much amusement one can derive from bum jokes.

Low level white collar work is being replaced by algorithms... so perhaps our young mathematicians can be put to work calculating the number of pills old people will need? :D

The point about the DVLA is a mute one when you take onboard my previous point and I'm afraid most job losses are job losses, we can argue the logical and lexical of that, but once a job is gone, its gone.

I take onboard about the whole future jobs we can't imagine... I mean 30 years ago nobody knew what an app programmer was or a web developer, so its possible.

And I agree about the scaremongering over Schegen... I mean the whole argument of Britain becoming over-populated, 80% of new jobs being taken my economic migrants and the ever increasing strain on public services was completely ridiculous. Scaremongering at its worst. The ONS reckons we have about 75% of working age (16-64) in employment, and they include the underemployed in those numbers, but again, I agree... much worse in the 80s when those daft manufacturing jobs were gotten rid of... if only we'd had the foresight to train ex-miners as nurses and care workers!

Anyway, what was the original post about... forgotten now! :(
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
Of course we do!
Under 16, or if very short, we send down to the coal mines.

Nothing beats a 12 hour shift at the coal face to keep the young ones away from the pubs!
 

dewi

Full Member
May 26, 2015
2,647
12
Cheshire
I hasten to add that only those given a pack of Woodbines at birth are allowed to work below the age of 18. It's a special club, but with many members.

My screen is covered in rum right now as I may have overreacted somewhat to the suggestion of our children at the pit face, so I will be a moment or two wiping it off! :D
 

Laurentius

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Aug 13, 2009
2,432
626
Knowhere
I hasten to add that only those given a pack of Woodbines at birth are allowed to work below the age of 18. It's a special club, but with many members.

My screen is covered in rum right now as I may have overreacted somewhat to the suggestion of our children at the pit face, so I will be a moment or two wiping it off! :D

I do not suppose that this current generation would even have a clue as to what a woodbine might be.
 

dewi

Full Member
May 26, 2015
2,647
12
Cheshire
I do not suppose that this current generation would even have a clue as to what a woodbine might be.

True enough... but maybe they might google it and see a filterless joy of days gone by.

I miss the unfiltered variety... not because they were tastier, but because those old silver cases fitted them so well (or is it the other way round).

There was going to be a reference to B&H but I thought that might be more politically incorrect than mentioning Woodbines nowadays... at least Woodbines are viewed with a certain nostagia.
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
I started my smoking career with Camels. Without filters of course. I was a real man at 15!
I remember those days when all I wanted was to throw up after a half fag, but as a good Scout I persevered.

I kicked the habit 3 months ago. No regrets, but a cup of joe is not the same anymore.
 

dewi

Full Member
May 26, 2015
2,647
12
Cheshire
A Camel ciggy is a good ciggy... not as good as 'Death' cigarettes (not sure if you can get them any more) as well before any legislation ever entered into the conversation, the Dutch cigarettes 'Death' told people who smoked them, on the packet, that smoking them was going to kill you. They were honest back then... and they were strong ciggies. Tasty as well lol

Doubt anything will replace the filerless joy of the Woodbine though... happy memories of those, although I lost my packet I was given at birth. It was replaced with a packet of Senior Service :( Not the same and everyone knew if you had a pack of SS, your Mum or Dad had smoked the Woodbines :(
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
We older people with freckles have them because our mums were dropping the ash from the cigs on our faces while breast feeding.

I also used to smoke Chesterfields. Also a real man's cig. Dunhill black when we went out and wated to look cool and worldly.


Ah, today's youth have not a clue about being young and hip! Bunch of sissies, all of them!
 

Klenchblaize

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Nov 25, 2005
2,610
135
65
Greensand Ridge
I had a very brief dalliance with the "cool as a mountain stream" variety when at school but never got hooked. Wasteful little things as I recall the menthol wore off after just a few puffs.

K
 

Tengu

Full Member
Jan 10, 2006
12,806
1,533
51
Wiltshire
Thank you to all smokers for funding my permenently seriously ill mothers medical bills, and my top-of-the-range psycologist.
 

boatman

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Feb 20, 2007
2,444
4
78
Cornwall
Back in the dark ages of the Seventies there was a lot of concern about underemployment and what people would do with all the leisure from only having to work a few hours a week. Sadly it never happened but it could have. What seems to be happening in Cornwall for some is that people have more than one part-time job nd include whatever is their favoured leisure activity in their living package. Surfers are particularly noticeable in doing this but there are many other options people take up, some of community benefit. Our fire and rescue service relies heavily on this with many Retained officers.

Of course, being retired we can leave out the real work element of the package and do whatever we want. This week I have been medieval swordfighting training, hopefully will be up in our wood tomorrow with 3D targets and bows and arrows. Dog will take us to the beach of course and on Saturday we will be assisting a school's funds with our Have-go-Archery. Might get out on the water with the kayak as well.

One strategy is to dig in, get your head down in work and save with the rewards coming later in life.
 

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