Climate Change???

[leon-1]

Neil1 and I were out on Dartmoor this weekend and one thing stuck in my mind more than anything else.

We were seeing things that should not be there at this time of year, plants still had fruit on them, Fungi that should of died of by now still happily growing (we saw a couple of the largest field mushrooms that I have seen and what looked like new ones coming up).

Also there are still a lot of insects that the cold would of normally killed off or would of migrated by now (I saw a Red Admiral, which now are starting to overwinter in the south of England).

Then on Monday I saw some visitors from Africa (Snowy Egrets), who appear to have made the Teign Estuary their home from home. They seemd quite happy and were fishing not too far from the resident Grey Herons that are dispersed along the shores of the Teign.

Has anyone else noticed visitors to these shores that should of gone by now or something strange in the enviroment that normally wouldn't be there at this time of year?

[tomtom]

i got some field mushrooms yesterday which had normally gone by now.. i think many of us have noticed this in the last 2-3 years.. with the swallows arriving earlier and leaving later every year! its very worrying

[jamesdevine]

Yep still have trees with green leafs and fruit on the trees. I am still sleeping with the window open and the regularly kick the summer blanket off.

It is a little disconcerting and I am really wish we had a proper winter. Last year we had on day of frost and and really bad thunder and lighting storm in January (if I remember correctly) that would not have been out of place in the US. Very unusual. :?:

James

[leon-1]

Well it prompted me to start having a look about the first thing that I came across was this :shock: . I am not so sure it will take that long at this rate.

[tenbears10]

When was the last bonfire night that you didn't need a warm hat and gloves to watch the fireworks because you certainly didn't need them last week? It is getting warmer but I don't know that it is all to do with human induced global warming. We are still on the way out of an ice age in geological terms so it is supposed to be getting warmer.

Bill

[leon-1]

Very true Bill, but what is worrying me more than everything else is the way that things have accelerated, I have been looking at some of the research from the BAS and the world wildlife fund as well. Although they tend to say that most things are inconclusive there is a definite trend.

[tomtom]

today i am wearing shorts and tea shirts (ok so i do that rain or shine) but theres not a cloud in the sky.. its November.. honest..

[ChrisKavanaugh]

I am trying very hard to measure my words and not overstep the rules of BCUK about political postings. Whenever a resource collapses, ie fisheries it is considered some temporary abnormality that will soon right itself. When it doesn't, scapegoats are created such as pinnepeds that after millenia are suddenly devastating the stock, or Alaskan vs Canadian fishermen taking an unfair share, or sport fishermen, or native americans with hereditary rights. Global Warming is also going through this self denial. It's a climactic abnormality that requires at least 2 generations study, or it's normal and part of the receding Ice Age. Well, there is an environmental concept called THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE. Simply put, you don't mess with something you can't replace. The great Iroquis Confederacy had a principle of the 7 generations. Nothing was done without considering it's future inpact on the next 7. Our global society can't even be polite to the ever increasing people bumping shoulders with each other everyday.I don't like what is happening. I want to go down to the zoo and botanical garden, prostrate myself before my fellow travelors and ask forgiveness. :?:

[jamesdevine]

I think your feels are shared by allot of people here including myself. The impact we have on the global environment is become more evident everyday unfortunately the small minority in the positions to change things are so detached from reality they are blind.

I have this feeling something big is on our door step and we are ill prepared for it. :cry:

James

[ChrisKavanaugh]

"By the twitching in my thumbs, something wicked this way comes."- Ray Bradbury. In another century nobody will care one bit about our silly ethnic squabbles, half forgotten wars or hand wringing social issues like gay marriage. They will look back at us with an oath at the ecological wasteland we created.

[tenbears10]

Ok guys I see what you are saying but it is partly down to what you mean by 'ecological wasteland we created'. There have been several times in the history of the earth when over 70% of all life became extinct in one event. It is not the earth that will die but the climatic conditions change so dramatically that what can live on the earth changes as well. I think people are concerned that we will destroy the earth but really we may destroy the ability of the human race to live on the earth but it will most defiantly survive long after we are gone.

I don't think this gives us the right to pollute and use resources as if we don't care but I do think the global warming is far from proven and if you want to worry then disease will probably get us long before global warming ever does.

I don't mean to offend or argue but this is my opinion.

Bill

[leon-1]

Bill, I think we are all entitled to our own opinions and this is one of the things that make forums such a great place because there are so many different views and opinions.

I was trying to find out what people were noticing, changes in their local areas to the flora and fauna, not just the unseasonal weather that we are having.

I find it as interesting to see peoples reactions to the question as well, do we right it off, do we get worked up over it or do we just sit back and remain stoic about it all.

One of the things that worries me is getting eaten alive by bugs that should of been killed off by more inclement weather and is this going to continue or get worse ):

I am looking at short term as much as long term climate change and the effects that it may have on us now and in the future, so all replies on the subject are welcome. :wink:

[bombadil]

Amen to that, mate....something's on our doorstep alright, and it 'aint pretty. But that's why we're bushcrafters, right?? I think we should drop Mr G.W. Bush in the middle of the arctic where forests which have been solid with permafrost thousands of years are now collapsing in on themselves because it's all melting beneath them, and them present him again with a pen and the Kyoto protocol.....
All this has happened before, though, and I'm sure it will again, with or without us and our poisons, how truly humbling to witness....

I think your feels are shared by allot of people here including myself. The impact we have on the global environment is become more evident everyday unfortunately the small minority in the positions to change things are so detached from reality they are blind.

I have this feeling something big is on our door step and we are ill prepared for it. :cry:

James

[Tantalus]

bombadil what a smashing idea mate

maybe some intrepid explorer will dig him out a glacier in 5,000 years time and draw all sorts of conclusions about primitive life forms from their find

but seriously....

earth will survive whatever comes, of that i am fairly sure

civilisation on the other hand may not

this autumn has been less windy than those i remember, usually the leaves have been stripped off the trees by a gale by now

and here in the south of scotland we have yet to have a real decent frost, but there is a definite nip in the air today and snow muttered on weather forecasts

it is not exactly tropical though

my personal take on climate change..............

a lot of scaremongering goes on by learned "professors"

( ya know the kinda guys who told galileo flight is impossible and the earth is flat )

on a geological scale we have not been watching the weather very long

sure a lot of stuff is possible, ............so is life on mars it seems

i guess the best any of us can do is to be prepared, and be ready to react to changes which we can now do nothing about ( lets face it fossil fuel burning goes back to the industrial revolution )

........ and if we can, be kind to our planet.

there will always be litter louts etc, best i can do is pick up after them sometimes

Tant

[Carcajou Garou]

This change has been comming on for a time and finger pointing at one person or group will only blind us to reality. The inevitable force of change is upon and it is how WE react to it that will determine our blending in with the changes that are here and to come. We need to adapt to the changes as best as we can without accelerating them furter if that is now possible. Enjoy it because we will not soon stop it. Learn from it as not to repeat it.
just athought

[arctic hobo]

Sorry to go off topic but there's a chimpanzee in Berlin zoo who was given a chimp adapted human IQ test. It scored 97; Dubya 94. I rest my case.

[tenbears10]

I think I got a bit serious there for a minute Leon. To get to your point of the question I meant what I said about bonfire night being very mild this year. I've been in a short sleeved rugby shirt all day today and not been cold at all and this is the middle of November. I remember 10 years ago there being snow in Southampton in Febuary but that would be a freak event now.

The irony is that if global warming persists and is as predicted Britain will get much colder rather than warmer so this could be even more of the calm before the storm.

Bill

[Jeff Wagner]

Shrinking polar ice caps and copper age men melting out of glaciers after 5300 years. Something coming indeed. Are you boys familiar with the pole shift theory? This notion goes a long way toward explaining sudden climatic changes and how mammoth could be flash frozen with green vegetation still in their digestive tracts. Also consider the Mayan calendar - it consists of cyles within cycles ...is extremely accurate and goes back in time over 5000 years. It also ends in December 2012.....

[JakeR]

I think we may be slightly relieved come saturday (possibly). Cold winds from the norths as appose to warm southerly winds. I haven't noticed it being warmer (apart from the last couple of days.
I know it is an issue, but i also think winter will survive for a good few years yet, i hope.

We'll see if a bit of cold comes in the next few days.

[hootchi]

A bit off from the theories but I read in new scientist that a chemist is planning to trek across the arctic sea on skis and in a canoe for the first time, to make the world know about global warming. That would be an epic adventure so he must feel quite strongly that we nweed to do something about it.

[gb]

Personally i think global warmings a myth, like others have mentioned the earth goes through cycles if warm and cool periods such as the 'mini ice age' in the 1300's.
also i read somewhere (might have been on here) that the atmosphere had 8 times more co2 in it xmillion years ago (can't remenber exactly) but yet it was no warmer.
as for this winter, ive read on a few sites that its gonna be a cold one. i dont think anyone can really tell but i think they're basing it on the fact that america has had a an early and record breaking hurricane season, so the atlantic has pretty much blown itself meaning less inluence from there, and that there is very little sun activity which is somehow linked to colder winters.

cheers gb

[bombadil]

Referring to the last message, there have been a number of "little ice ages", most notably beginning in the 16th century, when the Thames froze over and Bruegel the Elder painted the famous "Hunters in the snow" picture, and this period went on for a further 200 years. Between 1690-1700 there was a more serious series of winters and cold summers, in Scotland up to 65% of the population starved. Looking at oxygen isotope data (Hays et al, 1976, I'd love to be able to reproduce the graph here!!), is a very pretty pattern which shows the fluctuations of climate over the last 500'000 years. This is itself of no major concern, it merely reflects changes which the earth goes through fairly regularly. What is of concern, however, is the fact that the 30% rise in atmospheric Co2 in the last hundred years is attributable directly to the activities of the human race. I'm not sure about "xmillion" years ago, but analysis of bubbles in the ice in Antarctica have shown that between 500BC and 1880 there was no change in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, up to 280ppm compared to the 360ppm in 1996 (up from 350ppm the previous year)........sounds like a bunch of scientific garble, but it's pretty scary stuff....

[leon-1]

gb, the climate does change periodically, but the point of this is the speed with which it is currently changing, in 1976 we had a summer which was absolutely blistering, I can remember the tar on the roads melting and the heat coming up through the soles of my shoes. However after that I can still recall having snow in Tunbridge Wells in the winter.

The point behind this is total change, summers don't appear that much hotter, but they do appear to be a fair amount more humid. Winters have changed totally in a relatively short space of time from being cold and snowy to being cold and wet (not really all that cold).

Also this year the Gulf Stream was reported to have shifted ever so slightly north which is why we are seeing some of the change that we are seeing. There have also been studies that say that levels of salinity in certain parts of our oceans and seas are dropping, and that El Nino is getting increasingly more violent, but all of these little changes over a very short space of time, as far as the planet is concerned anyway, does not normally bode well for us.

[Fluxus]

On a practical note this may be of interest to folks on the forum. Since lots of us are out and about noticing things changing, It might be a way to contribute to the body of evidence in the UK.

[karen]

I have to agree with the fact that there have been changes in our weather system, but this, I feel is part of our evolutionary cycle. We, as humans, have to take responsiblity for our part in this, but does that mean that we can stop it? Sometimes all we can do is reduce any more damage but are left with the damage that has already been done. DAMAGE LIMITATION!!
Having said that, how do we know that this isn't the way it's supposed to go? Are we, as a species, really that powerful/arrogant to belive that we have any control over the elements, even if we can influence them? Would this have happened anyway? We may have speeded it up a little but can we honestly say 'Its our fault'?

I live in South Wales and it's more or less always very cold and wet in the winter and I have found that you can't always rely on the season for animals and plants. This is something that I have always noticed, most years something is there early/late. That is the way of nature.

Very interesting question.

Kar

[Gary]

People read 'THE COMING GLOBAL SUPER STORM' all of these things are scientifically predicted, the brief warm up before the big freeze!

This isnt doom mongering this is fact, it is part of the earths natural cycle - although the top of the food chain parasite that we are we are hurrying it along!

[Keith_Beef]

I wonder how many of you have read "Hothouse Earth" by Gribben. I think maybe Bombadil has

This book explains pretty well the way the Milankovitch cycle (and the other cycle, whose name I forget) influence the Earth's climate.

The book also describes the research into CO2 content in the atmosphere, and how the release of carbon into the atmosphere can be traced (by differentiating the carbon isoptopes) back to wood burning and fossil-fuel burning.

As some have pointed out in this thread, Gaia will live, even if Man disappears... And we can't be sure that man will disappear. We're a pretty resourceful and resilient animal...

As for climate change, we can either do something about it, or just deal wth it.

It is unreasonable to expect the inhabitants of the third world to give up chasing the goals of lower infant mortality, better food, longer life expectancy, that the industrial nations enjoy.

When the inhabitants of China and Africa start consuming energy (as fossil fuel in the form of coal), to the extent that Europeans cosume energy, then the CO2 content of the atmosphere is going to take a such a leap, that the increase from 280ppm to 360ppm is going to look pretty insignificant.

Any interest focussed on the use of oil is a distraction; coal was the big contributor to CO2 until around 1930. It will be a vcontributor until around 2050 or 2070, but oil production (hence consumption) will have peaked, and coal consumption will still be increasing.

Keith.

[RovingArcher]

I don't pretend to know much about the subject, but would think that (1) volcanic eruption could increase CO2 levels in the atmosphere. A major eruption having a major effect on the concentration of CO2 and other gasses in our atmosphere. So, when several volcano's start rumbling and spewing noxious gasses into the atmosphere at the same time, such as is beginning to happen on the Pacific rim, there could be a significant increase in these so called greenhouse gasses, which would increase the temperatures of the Earth and hasten the melt off of the polar icecaps, which in turn can have significant influence on our weather. (Yes?-No?)

[gb]

leon-1, i agree that we must be having some effect on the rate of warming, but like karen said it cant be just down to us. i'm not saying that we should not try to cut co2 levels, but short of stopping the use of all fossil fuels across the world maybe were just wasting our time? but then they'll have run out within the century anyway so we'll have to use clean renewable sources.

cheers gb

[bombadil]

Hehe.... :rolmao:
Not read that yet, just a student of Conservation and forest ecosystems and I read a lot of that sort of stuff......, but I'll be sure to give it a look, cheers ):

I wonder how many of you have read "Hothouse Earth" by Gribben. I think maybe Bombadil has


Keith.